Presenting a Political Risk Model and Identifying Its Consequences with Emphasis on Managerial Behavioral Bias

Abstract

This study aims to develop a comprehensive model for analyzing political risk and identifying its consequences with a focus on the role of managerial behavioral biases in organizational decision-making. This applied study adopts a qualitative meta-synthesis approach based on a systematic review of literature including articles, books, and theses published between 2000 and 2025 (and 1370–1404 in the Persian calendar); studies were selected using predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria and evaluated through the CASP framework, leading to extraction and categorization of model dimensions. Results indicate that political risk at both macro and micro levels significantly influences managerial decision-making, with behavioral biases acting as mediating and moderating mechanisms; key dimensions identified include risk analysis and evaluation, risk response and management, organizational consequences, corporate governance, organizational learning, and managerial decision-making capacity. The findings suggest that integrating political risk assessment with an understanding of managerial behavioral biases enhances decision quality, reduces uncertainty, and improves organizational resilience in politically unstable environments, and the proposed model serves as a strategic tool for risk management.